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The average milk price calculated for May 2010 deliveries is €
28.61 per 100 kg standard milk. The European milk prices are above the level of last year (+ € 0.92), representing
an increase of 18.5%.
May last year milk prices increased € 0.30 per 100 kg compared to the previous
month. This year the milk price of May increased € 4.47 per 100 kg. The
increase compared to previous month is more than twice as high as the increase
in the same period last year.
Dairies FrieslandCampina and DOC Kaas increased their fat- and protein prices this month compared to previous month. FrieslandCampina and DOC Kaas announced to increase the milk prices further in June and July.
Milcobel increased the milk price of May by increasing the fat- and protein prices.
All German diaries increased their basic price in May to € 28.00 per 100 kg milk.
The milk prices of Danone and Lactalis increased in May due to higher basic prices. The milk prices of Bongrain and Sodiaal remained the same this month.
The milk price of the Swedish/Danish dairy Arla increased, due to changes in the fat- and protein prices. Arla announced to increase the milk price in June and July.
Hämeenlinnan Osuusmeijeri remains their milk price the same in May.
Glanbia and Kerry increased the fat- and protein prices in May. Therefore the milk prices increased compared to previous month.
The milk prices of the British dairies Dairy Crest and First Milk increased in May due to seasonal changes.
USDA’s latest milk production report shows the number of milk cows in May increased by 21,000 head since last December. While milk cow numbers were still 1.8% below last May this was more than offset by 3.0% more milk per cow netting 1.2% more milk than a year ago.
Milk prices will strengthen further as the year progresses. How much prices will improve is all depended upon the level of milk production, domestic sales and dairy exports.Domestic economic conditions are not overly favorable for milk and dairy product sales. April beverage milk sales were down 1.6% from a year ago and down 0.3% year to date.
The exports of dairy products continue to show significant improvement. Increases in April exports compared to a year ago were: nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder 51%, whey proteins 37%, cheese 72%, lactose 13% and butter fat 144%. Exports for the first four months as a percentage of production were: nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder 29%, whey proteins 63%, cheese 3.1%, and butterfat 5.0%.
But, high cheese stocks are a major factor holding down the recovery of milk prices.
Total cheese stocks exceeded one billion pounds, 7.7% higher than a year ago. April butter stocks were 14% lower than a year ago, and stocks of nonfat dry milk 20% lower.
| Dutch Quotations | € per 100 kg | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2010 | June 30 th 2010 | index | trend | |
| Butter | 315 | 378 | 120,0 | → |
| Whole milkpowder | 252 | 293 | 116,2 | ↓ |
| Skimmed milkpowder | 203 | 231 | 113,7 | ↓ |
| Wheypowder | 70 | 66 | 94,3 | ↓ |
| Gouda cheese | ± 290 | ± 310 | 106,9 | ↑ |
In the Netherlands milk output during January-May 2010 was 4.81
billion kgs or appr. 2% higher, compared to the same period last year. The
average milk fat and protein percentage during this period was 4.50% and 3.52%
being a bit higher compared to last year.
According to recent provisional figures milk output in the EU-27 for the first
four month period of 2010 declined and was 1.3% lower than the previous year.
The general market attitude is wait and see.Supplies in the
buttermarket are tight and prices are consolidating around present levels. The
intervention stock of app. 25.000 tons has been released without any problems
and sold at market related prices.
The milk powder market is vulnerable and is much focused on the outcome of the
recent removal tender of EU intervention stock. Trading activity has slowed down
and market participants are waiting for more price direction signals. More
additional supply is offered from availible commercial stock,which exert some
pressure on current market prices.
On the international markets buyers are wondering if current
high prices could hold and are inclined to postpone their purchases for the time
being.
International trade is recovering again,which is reflected in increasing export
quantities.
Moreover Important institutions like OESO and IMF have recently increased their growth expectations for the world economy. At the same time however the risks of a new economic setback is looming. The sustainability of the current economic recovery is questioned now that the euro zone is in danger. To adress the growing budget deficits a number of EU countries is forced to take austerity measures,which could hurt the recovery and may impede an upturn of consumption growth later on.
Biggest growth prospects are in Chin. That home market becomes more an more important.China is planning to loosen its export focus and is on his way to stimulate its internal demand.So the imports in China could accelerate in coming years. In which way and to what extent Europe can take advantage remains to be seen.